WARNING WARNING! The 2021 housing market shot up like a rocket, and 2022 looks like we are on the same trajectory in just the first couple of weeks. So, the best time to equip yourself with the knowledge you need as a first-time homebuyer is now! What’s it going to be for the rest of the year? What are some action plans you can take? Listen here to get up-to-date information on what’s happening and how you can take advantage of it, or plan for the future for your best strategies.
URGENT 2022 Housing Market Update For First Time Home Buyers
2022 Early Housing Market Stats And Data That All First Time Home Buyers Need To Know
This is an emergency show coming to you in January 2022. For anyone who has been waiting to buy a home, this is your official warning. Now is the time. Not next year. Not after the crash because the crash is not happening. Not even at the end of your lease, now. If you have the means, now. If you don’t have the means or you think you don’t have the means, you should probably confirm that with someone who knows what they are talking about because you might be able to do this sooner rather than later. Check with a real pro. Not your friends on Twitter or your uncle who says he knows a lot about real estate.
This is an urgent message for you. Be very alarmed. This is based on only two weeks of data from 2022. We’ve got two weeks. This is stuff coming to us on January 13th and 14th. The horses out of the barn, the starter’s pistol has gone off. The ship is sailing out of the port. Urgent news for my homies. If you are new to the show and you think I’m being hyperbolic to sell you something, I can only convince you that I am not by asking you to go back and read all the other episodes.
I have to warn you. If you do take too long going back and read stuff, so you can verify my authenticity and the purity of my intentions, the home that you are looking at on Zillow now, it’s going to be sold and the next one that you see, after you have gone back and read everything, it’s going to cost way more. I promise you that. We are weeks into the housing market and I already have urgent news to tell you. I have already dropped the show early in January with the forecasts for 2022.
Supply And Demand
Before I even had a chance to catch my breath, 2022 started faster than a talent show on network TV. This stuff is blowing up and it’s everywhere. The commercials are in your face all the time. This is happening in 2022 and it’s not stopping any time soon. The reason for that is, I have discussed it with you in the past, it’s not enough homes. It’s simple supply and demand. This is the way it is. If you are waiting for it to get any easier, I highly recommend that you go back and read all the 2021 episodes.
That way, you can get all the math and the numbers, so you can believe in what’s going on for yourself and you can see how much money waiting is going to cost buyers in this market. Your best route might not be the easiest and simplest thing to do but in the long run, it is the smartest. Speaking of the smartest, that’s not me. I am the most interested. Not interesting. Only the most interested. The guy who reads and researches everybody else who talks about real estate and I take their thoughts, plus the historical data, slam it all together, summarize it and give you tips.
I was talking to an audience and she said I should start a show called If I Were You because we were talking about what’s going on in 2022 and people always ask me that. I always tell them, “I’m giving you the same advice I give my mom. That’s me. That’s my ethics. I always would.” She thought I should start something called If I Were You because she’s twenty-something. She thought it would be great for other 20 and 30 somethings.
She did want me to drop this on you. She’s @_Joeci. If you want to find her on Instagram and tell her what a good idea you think that is. She told me to say that I’m not doxing her. We are all about love and community in how to buy a homey community. Here’s the thing I told her that I do a show that if I were you, then I probably would have read to all of me reporting everything that I reported in 2021 and taken some action there. That’s my If I Were You show because here’s what happened.
In 2021, I reported prices would climb because interest rates were low and demand was high. That happened. I reported mortgage rates would go up because they had to do because they were the lowest ever at the beginning of 2021, they did. I reported there would be no forbear foreclosure crisis, so don’t wait for it and there wasn’t. In August, after we saw a crazy 10% to 13% increase in prices already in 2021, in seven months, I reported this. It wasn’t a bubble and it wouldn’t crash, so don’t wait for that.
It wasn’t a bubble and nothing was popped. I reported that rents would keep going up. They did. In January 2021, at the beginning of the year, I reported that it’s better to break your lease and buy as early as you can if you can do it at that time in 2021 because the money that you are going to spend to break a lease is going to be peanuts compared to the tens of thousands that you will save due to the price and mortgage interest rates going up. On February 20th, 2021, I reported all the stats in all the arguments for buying or waiting. In episode 53, I reported about one audience who took all this advice and she bought way earlier than she wanted. My girl Madison smartest 24-year old I know.
She bought in March, even though her lease wasn’t up until July. She closed on that condo in March. By the time her lease was closing in July, the condo she bought in March was up $30,000. That was a win for her. Why also I mention her? It’s because we were texting. Here we are, not even a year, and her $475,000 condo that she bought is now worth almost $600,000. All the episodes are there, go back and read at your leisure. Why am I telling you this? You are probably pissed. You are angry because you missed it. No, I’m telling you that because you missed it.
The only thing you can do is pick yourself up or retool for 2022 and get a new plan because the data in the first two weeks is showing us it’s happening again. 2021 is done and gone. Stop telling yourself you blew it and now you are going to have to rent forever. You missed it. My boy, Ted Lasso has something to say to you. “You beating yourself up, is like Woody Allen playing the clarinet. I don’t want to hear it, all right?” What is the big emergency? It’s here. It’s happening. Let me tell you about it.
I figured this out in weeks. How much can we know in weeks? Does the term a buttload mean anything to you? I have never seen anything like this in weeks. What’s happening now is the start of what is going to be going on in 2022. It’s going to continue for the rest of the year. In the forecast episode, I reported everything that they said was going to be happening in 2022 and it already is. On January 13th, the report came out that mortgage rates had already surged from 3.15%, 3.22% up to 3.45% in a couple of weeks.
[bctt tweet=”The only thing you can do is pick yourself up or retool for 2022 and get a new plan because 2021 is done and gone. ” via=”no”]
By the time this show gets produced and gets put up and it drops in your phone or wherever you read to it. We could be living in a 3.5% mortgage interest rate world. Why? It’s because the Fed has already started to control inflation by pulling back on bond purchases, which will raise mortgage interest rates this year. That’s why. You don’t understand that? Maybe you will take my word for it. I’m a nice guy. I have been telling people what to do for a while.
As an audience in Tennessee wrote to me. I love this, “I know cars. Did you know that in the 1979 to 1993 Ford Mustang, you need to look for rustic rotted strut towers and signs of damaged rip torque boxes? Do you know what torque boxes are? You are not supposed to know. You haven’t bought three. I’m looking for someone who could tell me what torque boxes are, what indicates their damage, and what I need to do to handle this or walk away. That’s what I’m looking for.” In his analogy, he was saying, “I want a good realtor. I know what I’m doing but I needed someone to know what’s going on with all the stuff.”
In his analogy, torque boxes and knowledge of torque boxes, that’s the crap that I endlessly read on home prices, mortgage rates, economic factors, and historical data affecting the real estate market. Which of us sounds more manly? What do you think? This is complicated. Nobody knows for sure what’s going on but I’m telling you now what I have seen that this jump is a good indicator that we are going to continue to do it. Bear in mind, I have reported other people saying, “It’s not going to be like 2021,” but is still going to go and move. It’s not going to be crazy high as far as the price is going up but the mortgage rates are going to go up.
The prices are already starting to move. The mortgage rates are going to keep going up the inflation has calmed. As long as the supply and demand work like this, the prices are going to go up. What about supply and demand? I’m amazed at how much has already happened in weeks. Let me tell you what’s going on. I have multiple buyers out there shopping and they are seeing multiple buyers on every single home because they are all selling in the first weekend. They are selling in hours. Now, I’ve got some extreme examples for you but these are true stories that happen.
One of the times, we went to go look at a home. We’ve got there in the first two hours. The home was even on the market. I walked in and the agent told us they already had four offers. Another one that we went to, had a line like we were standing outside freaking Disneyland. You don’t believe me? Check out the Instagram @DavidSidoni. You will get to see in my feed there the line and my awesome client jumping up and down and waving at the end of the line. I have been talking to realtors all over the world, all the unicorns that I’m referring people to.
One of the unicorns in Northern California in our Bay Area got a home for sale and was fielding 58 offers on the home. When she finally did the counter offers and bid everything up, it sold for almost 50% over the asking price. Now, that’s insane. That’s not normal but the fact that that’s even possible in this market is incredibly telling. I’ve got tons of more examples. The normal examples I give you sound outrageous. It’s normal in my area for $500,000, $600,000, $700,000 home to have $25,000 to $50,000 over list price as your first offer on the home.
You are going to get a counteroffer telling you there are ten other offers, so you need to turn around and submit your highest and best offer. You might as well waive any requests for repairs and waive your appraisal contingency. It’s nuts. If you are going, “That’s higher than where I am.” Think about it. The appraisal, the repairs, and all that, they cost less at the home is lower.
A home’s price is lower than that, it’s more competitive because more people have the ability to compete. I cannot emphasize this enough. This is everywhere. It’s in the first couple of weeks of January. Homes are flying off the shelves and it’s going to continue. Why? I always tell you this, my unicorn buddy, up in the San Francisco area had 58 offers on a home.
That means 57 people are still out there shopping week because they don’t have a home. When the neighbors that are outside that home of the Disneyland line that we were in on my Instagram, they are going to jump out of their house and go, “What are all those people doing outside of Sally’s house? It’s a dump.” Wait until they see how much that dump sells for when it closes in weeks. When they see that flyer on their doorstep, they are going to list their home for way more. You need to understand that data because that’s where this is going.
If you are reading all this craziness and wondering what in the name of Sam Hill is going on? There it is. What is the name of Sam Hill? Time for another edition of why do we say that? Morris Dictionary of Word and Phrase Origin says the exclamation was very popular with frontiersmen, especially when they needed to clean up their language in the presence of the ladies. The phrase was first seen in print early in the nineteenth century when the New York Republican Newspaper said, “What in Sam Hill is that feller ball about?
Some folks also say that it was Samuel W Hill, a surveyor in Michigan, who allegedly used such foul language that his name became a euphemism for swear words. There you go. What in the Sam Hill is going on around here? As predicted, early indicators of January 2022, show that the low supply in the high demand market is going to continue for a while. The good news is that now the median home price with the 20% down payment is still less of a monthly payment than the median average rent in the same area.
If you are in that area and you can only put a small down payment down, not 20%. It’s only a slightly higher monthly payment to buy than renting. If you do buy it, don’t worry about it. Give your landlord a couple of months. He’s going to jack up the rent and you are going to be cheaper. Rents are set to go up an average of 7.1%. In whatever equation you are looking at, it’s not going to be cheaper for long. If it’s cheaper to rent than buy the long-term math because your payment for a 30-year fixed mortgage is what? Fixed. That’s only one economic factor in a million that’s all in the back episodes of the show.
[bctt tweet=”Stop telling yourself you blew it, and you’re going to have to rent forever. You can still take action this year. Act now. You can start your plan today.” via=”no”]
We are talking incessantly about the long-term math in all those 2021 shows that I referenced earlier. Will it be easy to buy a home this year and take advantage of this? No, but will it be the right move? Yes, a little or even a lot of pain in 2022 will be so much more financially beneficial for you than renting and missing out again. Here’s what the buyers are saying about 2021. Nearly all first-time buyers in 2021, a full 85%, had challenges when it came to making an offer on a home. The other 15% must have been trusting fund babies are too stupid to understand what was going on around them because I was 100%, hands down challenges.
Many of them said the market was too confusing for a first-time homebuyer. Surprise. That’s the way it’s been forever. That’s why I started this show back in 2019. I should have started it back in 2008, 2009, and 2010 because it has been this way forever. Imagine if it has always been confusing for first-time homebuyers because there’s not enough information out there for you. Imagine how confusing using 2021 and 2022 when the market is this bonkers competitive, insane.
First-Time Buyer Experience
If I were you, I would read this six times. Get prepared and decide to fight this fight now if you have the ability to take advantage of what you can. Don’t worry about it. The past is the past. The only way to have a brighter future is to learn from the past. You can see the indicators happening now in the present. Let’s look at what the average first-time buyer went through in 2021 because I’m telling you, 2022 is looking like it’s going to be the same. Not the same price appreciation but the same type of market to purchase. The good news is these are what the average first-time homebuyer says. You are reading this blog. You are already well above average.
If you’ve got one of those unicorn bubbles protecting you, episode 53, go back and read to my girl, Madison. Thank you for coming up with the unicorn bubble phrase, then your results are going to be easier to come by. Anyone looking to buy a home in 2022 should go back and read episode 53 if you haven’t read it because it’s happening all over and her story will help you.
Here’s what people said about 2021. Across the country, they say 3 out of 5 first-time home buyers felt the market was more competitive than they expected. Great, you are reading this. You know what to expect. You will be 1 of those 2 out of 5. It’s sad. That is an uninformed world of consumers out there. People aren’t getting the information. Someone should start a podcast for that. More than half of the first-time homebuyers said that they encountered a process more time-consuming than they imagined when buying a home.
You’ve got a lot going on between searching for homes, finding homes, getting out and making the appointments, and touring the homes, then figuring out what the offer is. Talking with them, talking with your lender can be overwhelming and 79% of first-time homebuyers said, they had to miss an average of fourteen hours of work. Almost two full workdays so that they could get their first home.
I know that people are missing work when they are shopping homes with me because I always talk about the skit they did during the pandemic when everyone was sitting at home with nothing to do. All these people sat around and looked at Zillow. They did a whole commercial like it was Zillow porn. When I have buyers, imagine when you are trying to buy and you are not looking for fun.
First-time buyers replace all their social media time with the MLS, Zillow, and Redfin, with listing surfing. Don’t judge them. Wait until it happens to you. Wait until you are trying to buy a home. 2021 reports showed that first-timers check home listings an average of eight times a day. That’s low or maybe my folks are a little psycho.
What’s interesting is that stat right there, that’s like twice as much as it was the year before that. Again, there a large percentage of people said that they had all kinds of challenges and there are stressors that go on when you are buying a home. People are talking about being outbid on homes. They are waiting for counter offers and to hear and come back. Most of them said that they were stressed out because he didn’t have real estate knowledge. Having a professional, a unique, exceptional team behind you and your offers presenting and negotiating your offer, is paramount.
Not only success and achieving it but also to avoid those challenging stressful situations along the way. I implore you to get a unicorn realtor, a real pro. It has never been more important for buyers to get this help. It’s free. A free advocate to you as long as you hire the right person. Someone is going to help you win this battle royale and push you to financial freedom. It’s tough. In 2021, 98% of first-time homebuyers lost a home that they were interested in. Almost everybody lost a home. 56% made 5 or more offers before getting one accepted and 27%, putting 10 or more.
Why the hell did they do it? Why the hell am I telling you to jump into it and do it now? It’s because, like Madison, they had been thinking about it for a while. At the beginning of 2021, they start to see the market running away from them. Does that sound familiar? Sound like some idiot would jump on a microphone and say, “Urgent warning, emergency show.”
It’s happening again. Unlike Madison, you’ve got to fight this battle because the light at the end of the tunnel it’s got good things for you. When all said and done, the math says that this urgent warning information can be valuable to you, whether you have an opportunity to use it now or not. Knowing what’s happening means that when you are ready, you are going to be in a better position. You are going to be able to jump in the ring and put the gloves on. Eventually, you are going to be in a much better financial place and sure, it’s rough. It’s tumble.
[bctt tweet=”You have the ability to take advantage of what you can. The past is the past. And the only way to have a brighter future is to learn from the past. ” via=”no”]
Even in 2021, 82% of the buyers, reported that overall it was an enjoyable experience for them to buy their first home. Wait until they have lived there for five years and see how much their old apartment is renting for while their mortgage is locked in place. That’s the thing. It’s not immediate gratification. This stuff doesn’t get exciting for years from now when you see your little brother or sister’s friends, renting the apartment you used to rent for $800 more than you rented.
Back to Joeci’s podcast idea for me. The podcast she wanted was If I Were You. That’s the name of the podcast. Me, telling people what I would do. If I was in my twenties, if I were you, I would act as soon as possible. If I were you, I wouldn’t get bummed out if I can’t act now. I would be stoked that I found out all this information now, so I could start my plan now. When I’m ready to take advantage, I will be there ten times faster than if I never knew all this stuff.
If I were you, I would share this with anyone renting or getting ready to rent. I would tell every twenty-year-old that I know to never rent if you can. I would go back and tell my twenty-year-old self that you know or at the very least, get yourself together. Get a job and try to rent for the shortest time if possible. I would start my not renting plan the very first day that I ever had to pay rent. Whenever you’ve got kicked out of your parents’ house, you are fresh out of college or to anyone that has ever had to spend money on shelter. If I were you, I would start planning now to have that period of my life. My rental time to be the shortest it could be.
It could be 1, 2, 3 years but whatever it is, I would buy a place as quickly as I could because you are going to be paying for shelter for the rest of your life. If I could go back in time and I was your age and remember, that’s any age below 51. I would realize that I’m always going to pay for housing and that I should leverage that huge monthly bill into a growing asset instead of money tossed out the window. If I were you, I would understand that you can’t beat or time the market because, honestly, that was behind you. Unless you’ve got ten more years to wait for this to go up and down, and hit the final bottom, you have to take advantage of what we’ve got in front of us now.
You missed the big run. That was 2012. How old were you or where were you in your financial life? We have to do our best with what you’ve got. The best play going forward is to see if you can pull this off now, urgent 2022, if you are close, get a unicorn now. If not, then start your plan, so you can figure it out and be able to catch the best situation you can.
We still have remaining price appreciation and the mortgage interest rates historically are still incredibly low. If I were you, I would be confident and know. It’s not if I can buy a house but when? Now, with the market running away, the sooner you can do it, the better. I would start planning now. If I were you, I would tell myself every morning and night, “You can do this.”
This podcast was started for YOU, to demystify things for first time home buyers, and help crush the confusion. After helping first timers for over 13 years, I knew there wasn’t t a lot of clear, tangible, useable information out there on the internet, so I started this podcast. Help me spread the word to other people just like you, dying for answers. Tell your friends, family, and perhaps that random neighbor you REALLY want to move out about How to Buy a Home! A really easy way is to hit the share button and text it to your friends. Go for it, help someone out. And if you’re not already a regular listener, subscribe and get constant updates on the market. If you are a regular and learned something, help me help others – give the show a quick review in Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts, or write a review on Spotify. Let’s change the way the real estate industry treats you first time buyers, one buyer at a time, starting with you – and make sure your favorite people don’t get screwed by going into this HUGE step blind and confused. Viva la Unicorn Revolution!
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